Mar 20, 2018
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(HedgeFund Intelligence) The US stock market is rebounding. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 23% this year and is at a two-year high. The S&P 500 has climbed 19% and is at a nine-year high. The Nasdaq Composite has risen 25%.
The reason for the improved performance of the US market? In most ways, it's because of fundamentals, not due to an increase in market-moving events.
To be sure, the rate of corporate earnings surprises in the quarter are way down. The ratio of the number of companies that beat earnings estimates to the number that missed earnings is down dramatically. With the improving earnings outlook, the resulting higher estimates have been improved and make a bigger impact on the stock market.
For financial services companies, growth has been slow, but it has been positive. In the first quarter, net income and earnings per share were up 10% and 6%, respectively. That's a solid recovery from net income of just -$9.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2009.
Still, it's not good. The total net income of the financial sector is down 15% from the first quarter of 2009.
Earnings forecasts for the third quarter and the rest of the year are also down. For the third quarter, the consensus of 72 financial sector companies is for just a 1% rise in earnings, which will be disappointing.
The biggest issue is the change in cash levels. Net cash for the financial sector as a whole was down $32 billion, or 13% from the fourth quarter of 2009. That's not a good sign. It's an indication of lower expectations for the future.
The decrease in the forecasted cash for be359ba680
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